Which concept represents the probability that performance will lead to expected outcomes?

The concept that represents the probability that performance will lead to expected outcomes is instrumentality. In the context of expectancy theory, instrumentality refers to the belief that a certain level of performance will result in specific outcomes or rewards. It emphasizes the connection between someone's performance and the consequences that follow, such as promotions, bonuses, or recognition.

For example, if an employee believes that working hard will result in a promotion, they are experiencing high instrumentality. This belief can significantly motivate individuals to put in the effort required to achieve those outcomes, as they perceive a clear relationship between their performance and the rewards they expect to receive.

Expectancy theory incorporates multiple components, including expectancy (belief that effort will lead to performance) and valence (the value of the reward), but it is instrumentality that specifically addresses the probability that an individual's performance will lead to desired outcomes. This understanding is crucial for motivating employees effectively within organizations.